iPhone 18: Bank believes upgrade cycle will run smoothly
The iPhone 17 only been on the market for a short time, and speculation about Generation 18 has already begun. One financial institution is now very optimistic.
Apple products from the year 2025: The iPhone 18 is due next autumn.
(Image: heise medien/Sebastian Trepesch)
The US bank Morgan Stanley has raised its price target for Apple shares, which stood at just under USD 254 on Thursday (a fall of 1.56 percent compared to the previous day), to almost USD 300—not because of the sales success of the iPhone 17, but because of a “positive outlook” for the successor series, which is not expected until fall 2026. The analysts' most recent price target is now 298 dollars, as stated in a note to investors. In March 2025, Morgan Stanley had reduced its price target to 252 dollars, as the investment bank predicted poorer sales of the iPhone 17 at the time.
More upgrades in the coming year?
However, the latest October forecast now sees things differently. Morgan Stanley is now more positive about the iPhone 17 and believes that Apple sales will increase by four percent to 230.3 billion dollars in the 2026 fiscal year. The Wall Street average here is only 220 billion. In addition to possible price increases across the product line—the first iPhone foldable is expected to cost at least USD 2,000—the bankers also expect more sales overall.
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Demand for the iPhone 17 therefore promises a better-than-expected iPhone 18 cycle. According to Morgan Stanley, more users who want to replace old iPhones can also be expected in the coming year. The bank expects a total of six new iPhones in Apple's fiscal year 2026. In addition to the iPhone 18 (standard model), the iPhone 18 Pro, 18 Pro Max, a second Air, a foldable, and (probably later) an iPhone 18e as an entry-level model are planned.
The “bull scenario”
243 million iPhones are expected to be sold in the entire 2026 fiscal year. However, if Apple succeeds in selling up to 270 million units, the bank's so-called “bull scenario” means that the price target is USD 376 instead of USD 298.
According to analysts, there is currently a differentiated sales mix for the iPhone 17. Accordingly, the standard model in particular is doing well, followed by the Pro variants. The Air supposedly looks worse. The particularly thin iPhone is quite expensive and has some compromises. – only one camera, smaller battery – is struggling, which is apparently making “sales” more difficult. In fact, the devices can currently be collected directly from Apple's German shops, while you have to wait several weeks for an iPhone 17.
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