Extraterrestrial Civilizations' Communication Undetectable for Too Short a Time?

If AI technology truly massively accelerates the pace of technological development, this could also explain why we haven't found any evidence of extraterrestrial civilizations so far. The period during which they emit detectable signals could therefore be significantly shorter than previously assumed. At least, that's the opinion of British astronomer Michael Garrett, who heads the Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics at the University of Manchester and has long been concerned with the influence of AI on the development of civilizations. In a pre-published research paper, he now argues that this transformative technology could mean that an extraterrestrial civilization is only detectable for decades.

In the article, which has been accepted for publication in the journal Acta Astronautica, Garrett proposes adapting the famous Drake equation. This was developed by US astrophysicist Frank Drake and includes various factors that determine how many highly technological, intelligent civilizations there might be in the Milky Way that we can find. Most of these factors were unknown at the time, and some remain so today. One of them is the time during which a civilization is communicative and can send radio signals. Garrett now believes that the perspective is wrong. Instead, what's crucial is how long a civilization actually emits detectable signals. If this is only for decades, it would be extremely unlikely to find them right now.

AI as a Fundamental Shift

Artificial Intelligence (AI) represents a fundamental shift in human history, the astronomer continues. Unlike revolutionary technologies of the past, it acts as a catalyst for innovation itself and therefore has the potential to massively accelerate the pace of technological development. This is because it can optimize complex systems, discover new materials, and overcome previously unsolvable problems in various disciplines. Artificial general intelligence (AGI) could even lead to developmental leaps never before seen in history. These could ensure that an extraterrestrial civilization only produces signals for decades that we can receive.

This could be AI's explanation for the so-called Fermi paradox or the “great silence.” These are concepts that essentially state that we should have found extraterrestrials long ago, perhaps because the Milky Way should have been populated by intelligent beings for a long time. Garrett believes “highly developed civilizations can be numerous and long-lived, but undetectable with current methods of searching for extraterrestrials.” However, this doesn't mean giving up the search, but rather proceeding differently. The astronomer suggests focusing not on specific technologies but on searching for “persistent, large-scale manifestations of intelligence,” such as waste heat from megastructures or anomalies in measurements across numerous wavelengths.

The fact that AI could accelerate the development of a civilization so massively that it quickly switches to potentially more efficient communication methods, for example, based on neutrinos, is a significantly more optimistic theory than another one from Garrett. A year and a half ago, he proposed that the development of “artificial superintelligence” in the manner of a natural law always leads to the destruction of biological civilizations. This could also explain why we haven't found anyone so far. We cannot confirm or falsify either theory at present. However, the works validate another research group, which explained in the spring that and why the hitherto unsuccessful search for aliens is also instructive.

(mho)