Counterpoint forecast: Apple will seize the foldable market
The iPhone Ultra is set to be Apple's first foldable phone starting September. In North America, it could quickly overtake Samsung & Co., market researchers say.
Person with Foldable (not from Apple): The iPhone Ultra is expected in the fall.
(Image: Karlis Dambrans / Shutterstock)
When Apple enters the foldable market for the first time with its iPhone Ultra next fall, the manufacturer could quickly gain market share. At least that's what the usually reliable market research company Counterpoint assumes in a forecast published this week. In the USA alone, Apple could capture up to 46 percent of the total market by 2026. Thanks to the iPhone Ultra (which may also be called something else), the market for foldable phones is also expected to grow significantly – according to Counterpoint, by up to 48 percent compared to the previous year. Counterpoint writes that Google will be particularly pressured with its Pixel Fold, but Samsung and Motorola could also lose market share with their foldables.
Market will be plowed over, says Counterpoint
Counterpoint sees Google's market share shrinking from 5 percent to 3 percent in 2026, despite potentially revised hardware. Motorola's market share with its Razr foldables is expected to halve (from 44 to 23 percent). Counterpoint also predicts sales losses for Samsung: the market share will decrease from 51 to 29 percent, even though the company is better positioned globally for foldables and is even planning a pass-like foldable like Apple.
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With its forecast study, Counterpoint only looked at the North American market. Apple may achieve more or less market share in other regions. In the USA, Apple will “significantly change” the direction of the market, according to Counterpoint analyst Liz Lee. However, foldables are currently only a niche business anyway.
What happens in China?
The foldable market is more complex than other smartphone segments. Many top models from China are not offered in the USA or Europe. For example, Huawei does not sell its devices in the United States. Oppo, which recently launched the Find N6, its first almost “crease-free” foldable, is slow to release its devices outside of China. This leads to market distortions because not all devices are available in all countries.
It is therefore exciting to see how the Chinese market develops, where special foldables such as trifolds have repeatedly appeared. However, Apple is excellently positioned to push particularly expensive products into the market. The company is said to charge at least 2000 US dollars per Ultra, and with more storage, it could go towards 2800 dollars. The euro prices are likely to break the 3000 mark with full equipment.
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