Study: Cycling on shorter routes could triple
The proportion of journeys of less than 30 km made by bicycle is 15 percent. Fraunhofer ISI shows in a study how this could be increased.
Cyclists and pedestrians and no motorized traffic.
(Image: Fraunhofer ISI / ADFC)
The share of cycling on routes up to 30 km in length could triple in Germany to 45 percent by 2035. This is the assumption made by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (Frauhofer ISI) in a recent study commissioned by the ADFC (PDF). In order to achieve this goal, cycle paths would have to be excellently developed and good interfaces with buses and trains would have to be created. Local authorities would also have to plan better local amenities.
Frauhofer ISI assumes that traditional traffic forecasts calculate changes in people's traffic behavior primarily on the basis of travel times and costs. This systematically underestimates the potential of cycling and walking with their subjective influencing factors. "For the first time, we have included decisive factors such as the continuity and density of the cycle path network, the perception of safety in traffic, the linking of cycling with buses and trains and the quality of public transport and local amenities in the municipalities in the analysis," explains Dr. Claus Doll from Fraunhofer ISI.
Networks instead of individual projects
According to the study, cycling infrastructure should be planned and designed as a network, i.e. not focused on individual cycle paths. This network should be designed for continuous routes in the city with central cycle paths, cycle bridges, level crossings and also for connections between the main routes and districts for short local trips.
Videos by heise
However, such cycle path networks alone would not be enough to encourage people to switch from motorized private transport to bicycles. Speed limits, traffic calming in the neighborhoods as well as regulation and pricing for MIT would also be necessary. However, it will take time to reorganize urban structures in Germany. In contrast to countries such as the Netherlands, there is no decades-long tradition of transport policy in Germany. However, there are positive examples with the network designs in MĂĽnster, Oldenburg and Karlsruhe.
Parking facilities for bicycles must be adequately secured and dimensioned at all stops and stations, according to the study on the second component of the concept. Public transport stops should be more easily accessible by bicycle. In rural areas in particular, public transport vehicles should offer sufficient space for bicycles. Fraunhofer ISI also suggests integrating bicycles into information and booking systems.
"15-minute city"
For a third component of a possible bicycle traffic policy, Fraunhofer ISI is looking at the concept of the "15-minute city", in which all daily journeys can be made within a quarter of an hour. People move around the city on foot, by bike or by public transport with an even distribution of stops. Cities such as Barcelona, Bogota, Milan and Paris have already experimented with this concept, according to the study.
Empfohlener redaktioneller Inhalt
Mit Ihrer Zustimmung wird hier eine externe Umfrage (Opinary GmbH) geladen.
Ich bin damit einverstanden, dass mir externe Inhalte angezeigt werden. Damit können personenbezogene Daten an Drittplattformen (Opinary GmbH) übermittelt werden. Mehr dazu in unserer Datenschutzerklärung.
For its current study, Fraunhofer ISI supplemented route-specific preferences from the"Mobility in Germany MiD 2017" survey with district-specific data. This included average scores from the ADFC bicycle climate test and cycle path lengths from Open Street Map. This data was supplemented by the influencing factors of transport availability and the quality of public transport and local amenities.
Factors that are not subject to political influences, such as age structure, topography or weather and season, were also added. According to Fraunhofer ISI, these were taken into account as control variables. The researchers used the coefficients determined in this way to calculate scenarios. With their potential model, they want to show routes, passenger kilometers and greenhouse gas emissions by means of transport, region types and distance classes for Germany in 2035.
(anw)
