Lack of clarity between NASA and Russia: what about the ISS after 2028?
So far, Russia has only committed to the ISS until 2028. It is still unclear what will happen after that, as Russian modules keep the space station aloft.
(Image: NASA)
The end of the International Space Station ISS is not planned until 2030 and almost all the space agencies involved have pledged their support until then, although Russia has only pledged its support until 2028. It is still unclear whether the Russian space agency Roskosmos will also be involved until the end of 2030. If the Russians withdraw as early as 2028, there will be a number of unresolved issues to resolve before the ISS crashes into the Pacific in January 2031.
This is because the Russian and US modules of the ISS are interdependent and together ensure the maintenance and operation of the space station. While the American part of the ISS provides the power supply and the orientation of the laboratories without the use of rocket fuel, the Russian segments are responsible for keeping the ISS aloft and avoiding space debris. But what will happen if Russia stops working here in 2028?
After all, the ISS is not scheduled to end until early 2031, but Russia only wants to be involved in the space station until 2028. That leaves a gap of two years, which NASA is already thinking about. "We have this uncertainty, from 2028 to 2030, with Roskosmos," Robyn Gatens said last week. However, according to Ars Technica, the head of the ISS program at NASA hopes that the collaboration will continue: "We expect to hear from them over the next year or two about their follow-up plans and hope that those will also extend to 2030."
NASA is considering all options
However, if this is not the case, for example if tensions between Russia and NATO escalate due to the Ukraine conflict, there must be a contingency plan for the ISS. SpaceX's Deorbit Vehicle, which is designed to retrieve the ISS from orbit, could be available as early as 2029, meaning that the ISS could be buried earlier. So far, the last astronaut mission to the ISS is planned for the end of 2029, with the scientists remaining on the space station for around a year and then turning out the lights.
Internationale Raumstation (8 Bilder)
Currently, NASA leaders are still thinking about all eventualities. "A lot depends on what happens if the Russian team decides not to go beyond 2028," Ken Bowersox, NASA's associate administrator for space operations, said a few days ago. "Is this an abrupt termination where they turn off all the lights and don't even provide propulsion anymore? Or are they maybe still providing propulsion, but we have to do something else to make up for it, or are they flying (their modules) away? That's the least likely – they fly their segment away. Whether it's an abrupt termination or whether they continue to provide a minimum level of support, that pretty much influences what we do."
ISS continued operation after 2030 still possible
NASA could also continue to operate the ISS beyond 2030 and postpone the plans for the controlled descent. The US space agency is currently working on ISS alternatives to be able to continue space research without interruption. NASA has already made 400 million US dollars available for the development of private space stations in 2021. If these are still not in sight for 2030, extended ISS operations cannot be ruled out.
Russia itself would practically discontinue its manned space flight program if it were to withdraw from the ISS. It is extremely unlikely that the Russians will launch their own space station within the next four years, meaning that the Soyuz space capsules would no longer have any destinations. And although Russia and China have recently been cooperating more closely in space research, the Chinese space station Tiangong cannot be reached from Russian launch pads. NASA is therefore still confident that Roskosmos will continue to participate in the ISS.
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