Stopping driver shortage: Moia demands billions for autonomous shuttle fleets

Public transport in Germany is heading for personnel problems. By 2030, estimates suggest that up to 120,000 bus drivers could be missing. According to industry experts, this demographic change is the real driving force behind the technological transformation towards robo-buses, going beyond mere promises of efficiency. Sascha Meyer, CEO of Volkswagen subsidiary Moia, therefore sees autonomous shuttles not just as a technical gimmick. For him, they are the only way to maintain the mobility level in German cities in the face of dwindling personnel.

Meyer outlined a roadmap for market ramp-up in a podcast by Table.Today published on Saturday. However, this requires extensive financial participation from the state. The company strategist proposes the establishment of three model regions, each deploying around 2000 autonomous vehicles. To achieve this goal, he estimates state support of approximately 500 million euros per region.

So, it's about a lot of money: According to Meyer, the total development costs for the technology are in the billions. The Federal Ministry of Transport (BMV) has already signaled interest. However, it is tempering expectations of large cash injections and points to the current lack of funds for a project of this magnitude.

The call for state support underscores the investment pressure in an industry suffering from high operating costs. In Hamburg, for example, the IG Metall union is currently demanding a 20 percent wage increase for the drivers of the still manually operated shuttles. This cost pressure has already forced Moia to curtail its own offerings.

From ride-sharing to technology provider

To become profitable, the provider is fundamentally restructuring its business model, according to the CEO. The company aims to transform from a pure ride-sharing service provider to a technology provider. In the future, a complete package of vehicle, software, and operating processes will be sold to fleet operators such as Berliner Verkehrsgesellschaft (BVG).

This platform strategy is not limited to the VW Group: Moia aims to sell its technology to external partners. A test partnership with industry giant Uber is already underway in the USA. In parallel, parent company Volkswagen is considering the partial sale of Moia to a strategic investor to distribute the financial burden of development.

One component of this development is the project "Alike" on the Alster and Elbe rivers. A consortium of Hamburger Hochbahn, Moia, VW Commercial Vehicles, and the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) is rehearsing real-world scenarios here. The BMV is supporting this project with 26 million euros. The goal is to make up to 20 autonomous shuttles bookable via app and to integrate them seamlessly into classic public transport.

In the long term, the dimension is significantly larger: by 2030, up to 10,000 autonomous vehicles could be in operation in Hamburg alone. For 2027, the partners are aiming for the first regular operating permit for an autonomous vehicle, while series production has already started in Hanover.

Regulation slows down European solution

The fact that Moia is under time pressure is also due to international competition. Although US giant Waymo currently has no plans to enter the European market, Meyer sees this as only a small window of opportunity to be seized. The company is in an outstanding position to develop a European solution for the global market.

A hurdle remains the fragmented regulation in Europe. Currently, each new operating area requires its own permit. Meyer complains that an operating permit obtained in Hamburg cannot simply be transferred to Munich or Berlin. He compares the situation to a driver's license that, incomprehensibly, would only be valid in a single city.

Support for standardization comes from the transport companies themselves. The BVG, Hamburger Hochbahn, and Munich's MVG formed a strategic alliance in the fall. By 2035, these three metropolises aim to integrate up to 2000 robo-shuttles. Part of the cooperation is the mobility platform "MAX": an overarching app is intended to bundle access to buses, trains, and autonomous services, replacing the previous individual solutions. This could create a unified sales system. However, whether autonomous buses can fill the personnel gap in time will likely depend significantly on the release of public funds.

(nie)