Study: Road traffic volumes still below pre-corona levels

The volume of traffic on Germany's roads has not yet returned to pre-coronavirus levels. Last year, for example, there were 7% fewer cars on the freeways than in 2019, and the situation was similar on federal highways, according to an analysis by the think tank Agora Verkehrswende (PDF) based on a report by the consulting firm KCW. In major cities such as Berlin, Hamburg and Munich, car traffic has also been reduced, and in some cases this can be observed more clearly. At the end of 2023, there were 49 million registered cars, more than ever before.

In public transport, the number of passengers has not yet quite reached pre-coronavirus levels after a sharp drop during the coronavirus pandemic, but the analysis found that overall transport performance has increased. On long-distance trains, it has increased by 6 percent because passengers are traveling longer distances. Bus transport continues to cover less distance, while passenger-kilometres on rail in urban and regional transport are 2% above the 2019 level.

More people, more cars, but less traffic

"Despite a slight increase in the population and a steadily growing number of cars, car traffic has decreased compared to 2019," said Wiebke Zimmer, Deputy Director of Agora Verkehrswende. The change in traffic volumes since the pandemic can be attributed to new home office regulations in many companies, the Deutschlandticket and presumably also to the increase in CO₂ pricing for fossil fuels.

For the report, KCW analyzed data on traffic on freeways and main roads, public transport and car and bicycle traffic in selected cities. This includes, for example, counting data that some municipalities collect themselves. ADAC figures were also used, according to which congestion increased in 2023, but has still not reached the level of 2019.

The official statistics show that the annual mileage per car fell from 13,900 km in 2017 to 13,600 km two years later. During the two corona years, it fell to 12,000 km, since then it has risen to around 12,300 km. This is according to figures from the Federal Motor Transport Authority. However, traffic has increased due to the rising number of registrations - with the exception of the coronavirus years, and is now at 90 percent of the pre-coronavirus level.

Home office at corona level

To back up its assumption that people are now commuting less from home to work and back, Agora Energiewende used figures from the ifo Institute. According to these figures, the proportion of just under a quarter of those who work at least partly from home has remained almost constant since 2022. Online job advertisements offer the option of working from home for 20 percent of all vacancies.

Agora Verkehrswende summarizes its observations as "harbingers of the mobility turnaround", albeit with question marks. According to Philine Gaffron, Project Manager Urban Mobility at Agora Verkehrswende, there are desirable trends that can be accelerated with political instruments. "On the one hand, the aim is to expand public transport services and improve conditions for cycling and walking; on the other hand, the economic costs of driving should be allocated according to the polluter-pays principle and the privileges that car traffic has enjoyed for decades should be reduced."

Gaffron went on to explain that the recently adopted reform of road traffic law had opened up important new scope for action for local authorities. In mid-June, the Federal Council approved a reform of the Road Traffic Act. This will make it easier for municipalities to set up 30 km/h zones and special lanes in future.

(anw)